Congress Holds Sports Prediction Markets Hearing July 21

The US House Agriculture Committee's Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets and Rural Development will hold a hearing titled "Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets" on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET. It is the first dedicated House hearing on the exchanges, led by Kalshi, that now let Americans trade contracts on the outcome of sporting events in all 50 states. The session lands as prediction markets capture a fast growing share of US betting volume, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) advances a new federal framework, and as state regulators and tribal governments push back hard.

What is the July 21 hearing about?

The hearing examines whether customers on sports event prediction markets are adequately protected and whether the markets have the integrity safeguards that regulated sportsbooks carry. The House Agriculture Committee oversees the CFTC, the federal agency that regulates the derivatives exchanges on which these event contracts trade. According to the committee's calendar, the Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets and Rural Development convenes at 10 a.m. ET to hear testimony on consumer safeguards, responsible gambling gaps, market manipulation risk and the jurisdictional fight between federal and state authorities.

The Indian Gaming Association has confirmed it will testify, bringing the tribal gaming sector's objections directly to Capitol Hill. Tribal operators argue that sports event contracts function as sports betting on their lands without the tribal-state compacts that federal law requires.

Key facts at a glance

• Prediction markets generated more than 50 billion dollars in trading volume in June 2026, driven largely by the World Cup, according to a Macquarie estimate cited by SBC Americas.
• They accounted for roughly 27 percent of all legal US sports betting volume during the World Cup, tripling from about 9 percent at the start of the year, per H2 Gambling Capital data.
• 81 percent of senior gaming executives view prediction markets as a "very significant" threat, according to an American Gaming Association survey of 26 leaders.
• The CFTC issued a proposed rulemaking on June 10, 2026 to build a contract-by-contract framework for event contracts involving gaming and other enumerated activities.

Who is testifying and who is watching?

The Indian Gaming Association is a confirmed witness, and the hearing has drawn intense interest from the American Gaming Association (AGA), state gaming regulators, tribal governments, and the exchanges themselves. The AGA, which represents commercial casino operators, has aligned with tribal groups against the current wave of sports event contracts, arguing they undercut the licensed, taxed, state-regulated market. On the other side, exchange operators and their backers frame the contracts as federally regulated financial products that Congress and the CFTC, not individual states, should govern.

What are sports event prediction markets?

Sports event prediction markets are exchanges where users buy and sell yes or no contracts on the outcome of games and tournaments, with prices moving between zero and one dollar as probabilities shift. Legally they are treated as event contracts or "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act rather than as sports bets, which is why platforms such as Kalshi have offered them nationwide while traditional sportsbooks remain confined to the roughly 30 states that have legalised betting. Critics say the economic experience for the user is close to identical to placing a wager.

How big have prediction markets become in 2026?

Prediction markets have scaled from a niche into a mainstream force in a single year. A Macquarie report cited by SBC Americas estimated more than 50 billion dollars in trading volume across the sector in June 2026 alone, powered by the 2026 World Cup. H2 Gambling Capital data indicated the markets took roughly 27 percent of all legal US sports betting volume during the tournament, up from about 9 percent at the start of 2026. That surge is the backdrop the subcommittee is reacting to.

Why is the CFTC at the centre of this?

The CFTC sits at the centre because it, not state gaming boards, regulates the exchanges where event contracts trade. On June 10, 2026 the agency issued a notice of proposed rulemaking that would amend Regulation 40.11 and add a new Appendix F, creating a structured framework for evaluating event contracts that involve "enumerated activities" such as gaming, terrorism, assassination, war, or conduct unlawful under federal or state law. The proposal sets a 90-day review process and applies public interest factors on a contract-by-contract basis, and it defines contested terms including "involve" and "gaming."

"The CFTC will protect the integrity of our regulated markets without standing in the way of responsible innovation," said CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, describing the proposal as a durable, transparent framework for the Commission.

You can read the CFTC's announcement on its official press release page. The rulemaking is the federal counterweight to a wave of state enforcement, and both sides are expected to feature heavily in the July 21 testimony.

How are the states and tribes fighting back?

States and tribal governments are treating sports event contracts as unlicensed sports betting and moving to block them. Michigan's regulator has pressed Kalshi to halt sports contracts, and the CFTC has directed Kalshi to defy a Michigan court order voiding pre-existing sports trades, a striking federal versus state standoff. Arizona's Secretary of State banned all election-related prediction market activity effective immediately. We covered the wider dispute in our explainer on Kalshi versus the states and the escalating penalties in Michigan's Kalshi ban and daily fines.

Federal versus state: how the two approaches compare

Factor	Prediction markets (federal, CFTC)	Sportsbooks (state regulated)
Regulator	CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act	State gaming boards and tribal compacts
Geographic reach	All 50 states via event contracts	Roughly 30 states that legalised betting
Product framing	Event contracts or swaps	Licensed sports wagers
State betting taxes	Generally not paid to states	State betting duties and levies apply
Responsible gambling rules	Emerging, contested	Established state RG frameworks

Which operators are already in prediction markets?

The biggest names in US betting have crossed into prediction markets. DraftKings won National Futures Association approval as a futures commission merchant and launched its in-house DKeX exchange after acquiring Railbird Technologies, reaching 48 states and offering sports event contracts in 18. Underdog launched its own exchange over the weekend following its March 2026 acquisition of Aristotle Exchange, having secured NFA approval in January. Crypto.com, which powers DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets, FanDuel Predicts and Underdog Predict, raised 400 million dollars from Citadel Securities at a valuation of about 20 billion dollars. The land rush is precisely why regulators want clearer rules.

What does the industry say about the threat?

The regulated industry is treating prediction markets as an existential competitive threat rather than a curiosity. In an American Gaming Association survey of 26 senior executives, 81 percent called prediction markets a "very significant" threat, and 42 percent cited competition from new gaming forms as a top concern, up from 25 percent in late 2025. Even so, more than 60 percent of those leaders expected higher revenue over the next 12 months.

"Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state and tribal regulated operators," said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.

Why does the timing matter this week?

The hearing sits inside a heavy week for US gaming data and earnings, sharpening the contrast lawmakers will draw. Michigan and Massachusetts are expected to publish June sports betting figures, after New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania already reported. Casino earnings also land, with Monarch Casino and Resort reporting on July 20, Las Vegas Sands on July 22 and Boyd Gaming on July 23. Lawmakers will be weighing testimony about unregulated growth against fresh numbers on the taxed, licensed market.

What could come out of the hearing?

The hearing is unlikely to produce immediate law, but it will shape the bills and the CFTC rule that follow. Multiple measures in both chambers seek to ban, restrict or regulate prediction markets, with insider trading and consumer protection as recurring themes. Expect the subcommittee to probe age verification, self-exclusion, market manipulation controls and whether the CFTC's proposed 90-day contract review is strong enough. The most consequential question is jurisdictional: whether sports event contracts remain a federal financial product or are pulled back under state gaming law.

Why it matters

This is the fight that will define the shape of US online betting for the rest of the decade. If prediction markets keep their federal footing, a parallel, lightly taxed, nationwide betting channel will sit alongside the state licensed one, pressuring operator margins and state tax receipts. If Congress or the courts side with the states and tribes, the exchanges face a patchwork of bans. For a market that H2 Gambling Capital says already handles more than a quarter of US sports betting volume at peak, the stakes on July 21 are enormous. For related context, see our report on the Council of Europe's World Cup prediction market warning.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Congress prediction markets hearing?

The House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets and Rural Development holds its hearing on sports event prediction markets on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET.

What is the hearing called?

It is titled "Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets."

Who is testifying?

The Indian Gaming Association has confirmed it will testify. The hearing has drawn close interest from the American Gaming Association, state regulators, tribal governments and the exchange operators.

Are prediction markets legal in all 50 states?

Sports event contracts have been offered nationwide as federally regulated products, but several states, including Michigan, are challenging them, and the legal status is actively contested in court and before the CFTC.

What is the CFTC's role?

The CFTC regulates the derivatives exchanges on which event contracts trade. On June 10, 2026 it proposed a framework to review event contracts involving gaming and other enumerated activities on a contract-by-contract basis.

Updated July 2026. This is trade news for readers aged 18 and over. If gambling is affecting you, support is available in your jurisdiction.