Gaming Stocks Q2 2026 Earnings: Prediction Markets Surge as Sands Stumbles

Gaming stocks entered their most consequential earnings week of 2026 already on the defensive. The Roundhill Sports Betting and iGaming ETF fell 1.36% last week, more than double the S&P 500's drawdown, as Las Vegas Sands delivered a sharp Q2 miss driven by World Cup-related disruption in Macau and Singapore, and analysts slashed DraftKings' profit estimates ahead of its August 6 report. With Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts, Flutter Entertainment, and Rush Street Interactive all due to report in the days ahead, the next seven days will determine whether the sector's 2026 selloff has bottomed or has further to fall.

Updated July 2026

• The Roundhill Sports Betting and iGaming ETF dropped 1.36% last week, twice the weekly decline in the S&P 500 Index.
• Las Vegas Sands Q2 2026 net revenue came in at $3.15 billion, missing the $3.38 billion Wall Street estimate; EPS of $0.59 fell short of the $0.79 consensus.
• Adjusted property EBITDA at LVS fell to $1.12 billion from $1.33 billion a year earlier, with net income down 28% to $373 million.
• Bank of America cut its DraftKings Q2 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $120 million, well below the Street consensus of $173 million.
• Prediction markets captured 27% of all legal U.S. sports betting volume during the FIFA World Cup 2026, up from 9% at the start of the year and 4% a year earlier.
• Prediction market volume exceeded $40 billion in June 2026, compared to approximately $12 billion in online sports betting handle for the same month.
• DraftKings full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance stands at $700 million; Bank of America's revised estimate is $625 million.

How Did Gaming Stocks Perform Last Week?

The week was broadly negative for gaming equities. Among the notable losers, Playtika Holdings (NYSE: PLTK) fell 8.34% amid volatile reports of Tencent exploring an acquisition of its SuperPlay studio at a reported $1.5 billion price, while the company simultaneously undertook a "strategic alternatives review to maximize shareholder value." DraftKings (NYSE: DKNG) shed 7.74%, extending year-to-date losses beyond 33%, and micro-cap Betr Entertainment (ASX: BBT) dropped 5.71%.

On the positive side, The Star Entertainment Group (ASX: SGR) surged 9.09%, extending a month-long recovery of nearly 24% as turnaround efforts including the sale of its Queen's Wharf Brisbane stake and a $390 million debt facility with WhiteHawk Capital Partners gained investor attention. Churchill Downs (NYSE: CHDN) gained 3.05%, and Better Collective (STO: BETCO) rose 3.02%, buoyed by its Alberta, Canada market launch and an ongoing EUR 40 million share buyback at approximately 11,000 shares per day.

Las Vegas Sands Q2 2026: What Went Wrong?

Las Vegas Sands delivered the first major negative surprise of the gaming earnings season. Net revenue came in at $3.15 billion for Q2 2026, down slightly from $3.18 billion a year earlier and well below the $3.38 billion analyst estimate. Adjusted property EBITDA fell 16% year-over-year to $1.12 billion, and net income dropped 28% to $373 million. Earnings per share of $0.59 missed the $0.79 consensus by a significant margin.

The primary culprit was a sharp drop in VIP hold rates at both Sands China (Macau) and Marina Bay Sands (Singapore). In Macau, net revenue slipped 0.8% to $1.78 billion, while net income was nearly halved from $214 million to $107 million. This occurred despite a 73% rise in rolling chip volume and 30% growth in electronic gaming handle, indicating underlying volumes were strong but the casino's luck factor was unusually poor during the quarter. At Marina Bay Sands, casino revenue fell 4.1% to $1 billion and EBITDA contracted 10.3% to $689 million on a 49.9% margin.

Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, and Morgan Stanley all trimmed price targets following the results, citing limited near-term upside until hold normalizes. The stock initially fell more than 5% in after-hours trading before recovering to close the week approximately flat. LVS repurchased roughly 15 million shares at an average of $52.37 during Q2, at a total cost of $787 million, and retains $6 billion in buyback authorization through July 2029. Total debt stands at $15.11 billion against available liquidity of $8.9 billion.

World Cup 2026's Double Impact on Casino Revenue

CEO Patrick Dumont attributed a meaningful share of the miss to the FIFA World Cup 2026, noting "a decrease in visitation to both Marina Bay Sands and Macau properties by high-value patrons during the tournament." The World Cup's impact on casino operators ran in two directions simultaneously: for land-based venues dependent on high-value Asian visitors, the tournament pulled premium players away from the tables; for online sports betting and prediction market operators, it delivered the largest single sporting event ever in terms of wagering volume.

This divergence underlines one of the sector's defining tensions in 2026. Land-based and online gaming increasingly compete for the same leisure-time dollar, and major global sports events now tilt the balance sharply toward screens. The question heading into this week's reports is whether Melco Resorts, Caesars, and MGM saw similar World Cup effects or whether the disruption was concentrated at the premium VIP end of the market where LVS operates.

DraftKings Q2 2026: Why Analysts Cut Their Estimates

Bank of America lowered its DraftKings Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $120 million, a reduction driven by "unfavorable hold in the second quarter and slightly higher prediction market investment." The revised figure sits roughly $53 million below the Street consensus of $173 million. For the full year 2026, Bank of America now forecasts $625 million in adjusted EBITDA against DraftKings' own guidance midpoint of $700 million. Multiple other brokerages have also reduced price targets on the stock in recent weeks, and the shares are down more than 33% year-to-date.

DraftKings reports Q2 earnings on August 6, 2026. Flutter Entertainment, parent of FanDuel, reports on August 5. Bank of America estimates FanDuel's Q2 adjusted EBITDA at $110 million, roughly in line with the Street's $113 million expectation, but Flutter's full-year FanDuel guidance target of $970 million appears at risk, with the bank estimating $634 million. Bank of America maintained a neutral rating on both companies. According to Investing.com's coverage of the BofA preview, the hold headwind and competitive pressure from prediction platforms are the two dominant factors weighing on near-term estimates.

Prediction Markets: Structural Shift or World Cup Spike?

The most consequential data point in this week's earnings setup is the scale of prediction markets' World Cup penetration. Prediction platforms captured 27% of all legal U.S. sports betting volumes during the 2026 FIFA tournament, up sharply from 9% at the start of the year and from roughly 4% twelve months earlier. In June 2026, prediction market volume exceeded $40 billion, compared to online sports betting handle of approximately $12 billion. That means prediction markets handled more than three times the volume of licensed sportsbooks in June.

Kalshi alone doubled its previous single-event trading record and operated at nearly ten times its early-year volume during the World Cup, per data reported by Fortune. Apptopia data showed Kalshi had more daily app users than both DraftKings and FanDuel during the tournament. Kalshi's World Cup trading volume was also more than double Polymarket's, according to Dune Analytics. Analyst Ian Moore noted the results will "put feet to the fire" for traditional sportsbooks to offer comparable products.

The competitive advantage prediction markets hold is partly structural: they operate under CFTC oversight rather than state gaming regulation, accept users aged 18 and older rather than 21, and are available in states where sports betting remains illegal. FanDuel launched a standalone prediction market app but gained little traction. The regulatory turf war over prediction market jurisdiction continues to shape the competitive landscape, with Congress holding its first dedicated hearing on sports event contracts last week. Michigan has moved aggressively to block Kalshi access, and questions around prediction market jurisdiction remain unresolved at the federal level.

Which Gaming Stocks Are Bucking the Trend?

Not every name in the sector is under pressure. Better Collective (STO: BETCO) extended year-to-date gains to over 7%, supported by its launch in the Alberta, Canada market following the province's regulated market opening on July 13, 2026, with 50 operators at launch. The company is also running an ongoing EUR 40 million share buyback at approximately 11,000 shares per day. Churchill Downs (NYSE: CHDN), despite being down nearly 24% year-to-date, carries a Wall Street mean target price of $138.50, implying more than 60% upside from current levels ahead of its earnings report expected this week.

Boyd Gaming reported Q2 revenues and profits broadly in line with estimates, attracting target price increases from Mizuho, Stifel, and Susquehanna with minimal analyst concern. Monarch Casinos beat estimates with Q2 revenue of $142.6 million, a 4.2% year-over-year increase, and easily surpassed EPS expectations, though the stock slipped about 3% as much of the optimism was already priced in.

Playtika and the Tencent-SuperPlay Acquisition Talks

Playtika Holdings (NYSE: PLTK) fell 8.34% last week amid reports of Tencent exploring an acquisition of its SuperPlay studio at a reported $1.5 billion valuation. Playtika is conducting a broader "strategic alternatives review to maximize shareholder value." The social casino and casual gaming company has experienced significant volatility in 2026, hitting a low of $2.64 per share in early April. The SuperPlay unit, known for mobile games including Dice Dreams, represents a significant asset within Playtika's portfolio. Neither Tencent nor Playtika has confirmed any deal is under negotiation.

Regulatory Developments: Brazil, UK, and Congress

Several regulatory events shaped the week alongside earnings. Brazil's Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) opened a 45-day public consultation on licensing requirements, a further signal that the country's regulated online gambling framework continues to take shape following its landmark 2024 legislation. In the United Kingdom, the Gambling Commission confirmed that settlement funds will now be directed to HM Treasury rather than to gambling charities, a shift in policy with implications for how operators structure compliance agreements. In Kenya, the High Court temporarily halted planned gambling licensing fee hikes. Wisconsin's Election Commission warned residents they could lose voting rights for gambling on elections, reflecting the continuing friction between prediction market platforms and state election law.

What to Expect from MGM, Caesars, and Rush Street

This week's most closely watched reports will come from Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts, both carrying significant Las Vegas Strip and regional casino exposure. Given the World Cup-related softness already reported by Las Vegas Sands, investors will be watching for any similar hold volatility or premium-traffic disruption, and for guidance on the second half of 2026. Caesars and MGM also have meaningful online sports betting and iGaming operations through Caesars Digital and BetMGM, making prediction market commentary from management a key focus for online gaming investors.

Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) will offer a read on the mid-tier online operator's performance in a market increasingly pressured by prediction market volume. Melco Resorts and Entertainment provides a second Macau data point to determine whether World Cup-related premium player disruption was industry-wide or concentrated at the VIP end of LVS's business. Codere Online and Gaming and Leisure Properties round out a busy week. The full picture of Q2 2026's gaming earnings will be substantially clearer by Friday, August 8.

"There was a decrease in visitation to both Marina Bay Sands and Macau properties by high-value patrons during the tournament." - Patrick Dumont, CEO, Las Vegas Sands, Q2 2026 earnings call

Frequently Asked Questions

When do DraftKings and Flutter report Q2 2026 earnings?

Flutter Entertainment reports on August 5, 2026. DraftKings reports on August 6, 2026.

What is the DraftKings Q2 2026 EBITDA estimate?

Bank of America estimates $120 million in adjusted EBITDA for DraftKings Q2 2026, significantly below the broader Street consensus of $173 million. The bank cites unfavorable hold and higher prediction market investment as the key drivers of the shortfall.

Why did Las Vegas Sands miss Q2 2026 estimates?

An unusually low VIP hold rate at Macau and Marina Bay Sands, compounded by World Cup-related diversion of high-value Asian patrons from both venues during the tournament, caused LVS to miss both revenue and earnings estimates for Q2 2026.

What share of World Cup bets went through prediction markets?

Prediction markets captured approximately 27% of all legal U.S. sports betting volume during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, up from roughly 9% at the start of 2026 and from about 4% a year earlier.

Which gaming stocks performed best last week?

The Star Entertainment Group led gains with a 9.09% weekly rise, followed by Churchill Downs at 3.05% and Better Collective at 3.02%.