Google Bans Prediction Market Ads in Michigan and New York

Google now prohibits advertising for prediction market contracts in Michigan and New York, effective July 13, 2026, taking its state-level ad blackout on the sector to four states. Michigan and New York join Nevada and Ohio on the restricted list, and the change lands days after courts in both new states sided with gambling regulators against exchange operator Kalshi.

The move tightens the paid-media squeeze on a fast-growing but legally contested corner of the betting world. Prediction market operators such as Kalshi have argued they sit under exclusive federal oversight through their Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registration, but a run of state court decisions and now Google's advertising policy are pushing back on that claim in the biggest US markets.

What did Google change?

Google updated its Prediction Markets advertising policy to prohibit ads for prediction market contracts and related products in Michigan and New York from July 13, 2026. The company confirmed the change in its official ads policy documentation, stating that "advertising of prediction markets and related products in Michigan and New York is prohibited effective July 13, 2026." The policy is published on Google's advertising policy help pages under its dedicated Prediction Markets entry.

The restriction applies to paid advertising only. It does not, by itself, make the underlying contracts illegal or force platforms offline. What it removes is one of the most powerful customer-acquisition channels in digital marketing, cutting operators off from search and shopping ads that target users in the two states.

Which states now ban prediction market ads on Google?

Four US states are now covered: Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New York. Google restricted Nevada first, then added Ohio effective June 2, 2026, and has now extended the same treatment to Michigan and New York.

State	Ad ban effective	Regulatory context
Nevada	Early 2026	First state added to Google's restricted list
Ohio	June 2, 2026	Ohio Casino Control Commission said it did not request the action
Michigan	July 13, 2026	State court cease and desist order against Kalshi
New York	July 13, 2026	Federal judge denied Kalshi injunction against state enforcement

Key facts at a glance

• Google now bans prediction market ads in 4 US states as of July 2026, according to Google's ads policy documentation.
• The Michigan and New York restrictions took effect on July 13, 2026.
• Ohio was added effective June 2, 2026, per Google's earlier policy update.
• A Michigan judge set an August 12, 2026 geofencing compliance deadline for Kalshi, with the threat of $500,000 daily fines, according to court reporting.

Why did Google add Michigan and New York now?

Google did not publish an official rationale, but the timing tracks two courtroom defeats for Kalshi in exactly these states. In Michigan, Ingham County Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina issued an order restraining Kalshi's sports prediction markets, with the operator required to comply with geofencing by August 12, 2026 or face fines reported at $500,000 per day. In New York, US District Judge Analisa Torres on July 8, 2026 denied Kalshi's request to block state gambling enforcement.

Google has historically aligned its advertising policies with the legal status of a product in a given jurisdiction. When a state secures a court ruling asserting its authority over these contracts, the advertising risk for Google and its advertisers rises sharply. That pattern helps explain why the ad restrictions have followed the litigation state by state.

What did the New York court actually rule?

Judge Torres rejected Kalshi's core argument that federal commodities law preempts state gambling oversight. In denying the injunction, the court found that Congress did not intend to strip states of their traditional authority over gambling, and that Kalshi's CFTC registration and geolocation technology do not exempt it from New York's licensing requirements.

"Kalshi tried to get out of following our laws in New York. They lost in court."

That line came from New York Attorney General Letitia James after the ruling. Kalshi has said it maintains that it operates under exclusive federal jurisdiction through its CFTC registration and has signaled it will keep contesting the state actions, including in Michigan.

Who can still advertise prediction markets on Google?

Only federally regulated operators remain eligible, and only outside the restricted states. Under Google's policy, advertisers must be a Designated Contract Market (DCM) authorized by the CFTC, or a brokerage authorized by the National Futures Association (NFA) to offer third-party access to qualifying exchange-listed event contracts. Those eligibility rules do not override the state-level blackout, so even a fully CFTC-authorized DCM cannot run these ads in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan or New York.

How big is the commercial hit for operators?

The lost markets are among the largest in the country. New York and Michigan are two of the most valuable regulated online gambling and sports betting states in the US, so losing Google search and shopping ads there removes access to a large, high-intent audience. For venture-backed exchanges that have leaned on aggressive digital acquisition and sports tie-ins, the compounding loss of four states narrows the paid-growth runway at a critical moment.

It also raises costs. When a dominant ad channel closes, operators are pushed toward affiliates, sponsorships, social and influencer deals, which can be less efficient and harder to measure. That reshuffling of spend is something the wider industry is watching closely.

How does this fit the wider prediction markets fight?

This is one front in a much larger battle over whether event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or unlicensed gambling. Beyond Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New York, enforcement activity has surfaced in states including Massachusetts, Arizona, Montana and Illinois. The central legal question, whether CFTC oversight preempts state gambling law, is now being tested in multiple courtrooms at once, and the early rulings have tended to preserve state authority.

The advertising angle matters because platforms like Google act as a private-sector amplifier of that legal uncertainty. Even before a final appellate answer, a policy change at a company that controls the dominant search ad market can reshape how, and where, these products reach consumers.

Did state regulators ask Google to act?

Not always. When Ohio was added, the Ohio Casino Control Commission said it had not requested Google's action, indicating the company moved on its own reading of the legal landscape rather than at a regulator's direct instruction. Google has not detailed the internal process behind the Michigan and New York additions, but the same self-directed pattern appears to apply.

What happens next?

Expect more states to follow the litigation-then-restriction pattern, and expect Kalshi and its peers to keep appealing. Kalshi is contesting the Michigan order and continues to argue for federal preemption, so higher courts will ultimately shape whether these ad bans expand further or get rolled back. In the near term, the August 12, 2026 Michigan geofencing deadline is the next concrete date to watch.

For operators, the practical takeaway is immediate: paid Google reach in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New York is off the table, and compliance and marketing teams will need to reroute both spend and legal strategy accordingly.

Frequently asked questions

Which states does Google ban prediction market ads in?

As of July 2026, Google bans prediction market ads in four US states: Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and New York. Michigan and New York were added effective July 13, 2026.

Are prediction markets now illegal in Michigan and New York?

The Google policy only bans advertising, not the products themselves. However, courts in both states have ruled that operators like Kalshi are subject to state gambling enforcement, which is a separate and ongoing legal fight.

Why is Kalshi at the center of this?

Kalshi is the main prediction market operator facing state enforcement over its sports event contracts. Its argument that CFTC registration preempts state gambling law has been rejected in recent Michigan and New York court decisions.

Can any company still advertise prediction markets on Google?

Only CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Markets or NFA-registered brokerages are eligible under Google's policy, and even they cannot advertise in the four restricted states.

When is the next key deadline?

A Michigan court set an August 12, 2026 deadline for Kalshi to comply with geofencing requirements or face reported fines of $500,000 per day.

Updated July 2026. Reporting drawn from Gambling Insider, Google's official Prediction Markets advertising policy, and court reporting on the New York ruling against Kalshi.