Ireland Threatens Polymarket, Kalshi With Court Action

Ireland's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRAI) has warned Polymarket and Kalshi that it will seek High Court blocking orders unless the prediction market platforms restrict access for Irish users. Both companies have already begun limiting Irish accounts, but GRAI says it is prepared to escalate against any operator that does not comply, as part of a wider European regulatory push against unlicensed prediction markets.

What is GRAI threatening Polymarket and Kalshi with?

GRAI has told Polymarket and Kalshi that continued unlicensed access for Irish customers could trigger High Court action. GRAI chief executive Anne Marie Caulfield told RTE's This Week that the regulator can pursue "a blocking order for access to the site and also in relation to the funding involved" if a platform ignores its warnings. GRAI has confirmed to Gambling Insider that it has already warned major prediction market platforms operating without a license that they must restrict access for Irish users or face enforcement.

Why is Ireland cracking down on prediction markets now?

Ireland's Gambling Regulation Act 2024, which created GRAI and brought in a new licensing regime for online gambling, treats platforms offering betting-style contracts on real world events as remote betting intermediaries that need a license. GRAI has made unlicensed prediction markets a priority since the new licensing system took effect this year, arguing that platforms letting Irish users trade on elections, sport or other outcomes without a license fall squarely within the scope of Irish gambling law.

What did GRAI's chief executive actually say about enforcement?

Caulfield said most international operators comply once GRAI intervenes. "For the vast majority of cases where we've intervened, they have withdrawn their sites," she said, referring to global prediction market companies contacted by the regulator. She added that where a platform does not withdraw, GRAI is prepared to go to the High Court for a blocking order covering both site access and the flow of funds.

Have Polymarket and Kalshi already restricted Irish users?

Yes. According to Gambling Insider's reporting, both platforms have added Ireland to their list of restricted jurisdictions since GRAI's warning. One of the two platforms has gone further, blocking new account registrations from Ireland and preventing existing Irish account holders from depositing funds or opening new positions, an approach consistent with how both companies have responded to similar regulatory pressure elsewhere in Europe.

What law gives GRAI the power to act?

The Gambling Regulation Act 2024 is the legal basis for GRAI's authority. It requires any operator offering remote betting services to Irish consumers to hold a GRAI license, and GRAI has classified prediction markets that let users bet on the outcome of real world events as falling under that definition. GRAI itself cannot force Irish internet service providers to block a site directly. Instead, it relies on formal warnings backed by the threat of a High Court blocking order, the same enforcement route used against other unlicensed black market gambling operators.

How does Ireland's move compare to other European countries?

Ireland is one of at least a dozen European jurisdictions that have restricted Polymarket, Kalshi or both this year. France's gambling regulator, the ANJ, ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket entirely in July 2026 after a two year investigation found the platform's own transaction controls had failed to stop 578,751 visits, including 205,057 unique visitors, in June 2026 alone, according to iGaming Business. Polymarket has also been blocked in Italy and the Czech Republic, while Kalshi was subject to a temporary blocking order in Spain in April 2026.

Country	Platform(s) restricted	Action taken	Status as of July 2026
Ireland	Polymarket, Kalshi	Warning letters, High Court action threatened	Both platforms have restricted Irish accounts
France	Polymarket	ANJ ordered ISPs to block the site	Blocked, up to EUR 100,000 fine for related violations
Italy	Polymarket	Regulatory block	Blocked
Czech Republic	Polymarket	Regulatory block	Blocked
Spain	Kalshi	Temporary blocking order (April 2026)	Restricted

Why do regulators classify prediction markets as gambling?

Regulators including GRAI and the ANJ argue that contracts letting users pay to take a position on an uncertain future event, with a binary payout depending on the outcome, meet the legal definition of betting regardless of the platform's own description of itself as a financial exchange. The ANJ specifically cited the absence of know your customer checks, public display of betting style odds and the lack of stake limits or cooling off periods as reasons Polymarket's structure amounted to an unauthorised game of chance under French law, according to iGaming Business.

What has France done about Polymarket?

France has taken the most aggressive action of any European market so far. The ANJ's investigation into Polymarket's parent company, Adventure One, ran for two years before French authorities moved to order a full ISP level block in July 2026. French regulators had already fined an unnamed operator, referred to as "Company X," EUR 500,000 in a prior enforcement action, and the maximum fine for promoting unlicensed gambling odds under French law is EUR 100,000.

Is this part of a coordinated European crackdown?

GRAI has joined nine other European gambling regulators in issuing a joint warning about the player protection and market integrity risks posed by unlicensed prediction markets, according to Gambling Insider. That coordination mirrors comments from Irish Finance Minister Simon Harris, who in May 2026 described unregulated prediction markets as a "Wild West" and pointed to ongoing investigations into suspicious betting activity and potential money laundering risks on platforms including Polymarket.

What happens if Polymarket or Kalshi ignore the warning?

If a platform does not restrict Irish access after receiving a formal warning, GRAI can apply to Ireland's High Court for an order requiring internet service providers to block the site and, separately, an order targeting the payment channels used to fund accounts. Caulfield's comments suggest GRAI sees this two pronged approach, blocking both access and money flow, as its strongest enforcement tool given that it has no direct power to compel ISPs on its own.

What does this mean for the wider igaming industry?

The Ireland warning adds another data point to a pattern playing out across Europe in 2026: national regulators increasingly treat prediction markets as unlicensed betting operators rather than financial exchanges, and they are willing to use blocking orders, ISP level bans and fines to enforce that view. For licensed Irish and European gambling operators, the crackdown removes an unregulated competitor that had been drawing bettor attention and, in some markets, trading volume away from licensed sportsbooks, particularly around major events.

What happens next?

GRAI has not set a public deadline for Polymarket or Kalshi to fully comply, but Caulfield's High Court comments signal the regulator is prepared to move quickly if voluntary restrictions prove incomplete. Given both platforms have already restricted new Irish sign ups, the immediate flashpoint is likely to be enforcement against any remaining access for existing Irish account holders, along with how GRAI treats other prediction market operators that have not yet responded to its warnings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is GRAI?

GRAI is the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland, the state body created under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024 to license and regulate remote and land based gambling in Ireland.

Are prediction markets illegal in Ireland?

Prediction markets are not banned outright in Ireland, but GRAI says any platform offering betting style contracts on real world outcomes to Irish customers needs a GRAI license, which Polymarket and Kalshi do not currently hold.

Can Irish users still access Polymarket or Kalshi?

Both platforms have added restrictions for Irish users since GRAI's warning, including blocks on new registrations and, in at least one case, on deposits and new positions for existing account holders.

Which other countries have restricted Polymarket or Kalshi?

France, Italy, the Czech Republic and Spain have all taken action against Polymarket, Kalshi or both in 2026, part of a wider pattern across at least a dozen European markets.

Updated July 2026.