Licensed Prediction Betting in Spain: Will DGOJ Allow It in 2026?

Spain has not licensed prediction betting as of July 2026, but its regulator, the Direccion General de Ordenacion del Juego (DGOJ), is actively examining whether existing sports betting law already permits certain sports linked prediction markets, even as it moves to block unlicensed platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.

Key facts

• The DGOJ opened disciplinary proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi in May 2026 and ordered Spanish internet providers to block both platforms for operating without a Spanish license, according to European Gaming.
• Spain's existing betting rules already allow wagers where bettors bet against each other with the operator acting only as intermediary, a structure that could cover sports or horse racing prediction markets, according to ECIJA lawyer Camille Gonzalvez.
• Spain's new cross operator deposit limits, approved by the Council of Ministers on June 23, 2026, are projected by H2 Gambling Capital to cut annual regulated player spending by roughly EUR 300 million and reduce market channelization from 76 percent to 74 percent by 2027, according to G3 Newswire.

What is licensed prediction betting and why is Spain discussing it now?

Prediction betting lets users take opposing positions on the outcome of a real world event, such as an election or a sports result, with pricing that moves like a market rather than fixed odds. Spain is discussing it now because global platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have pushed into sports adjacent markets during the 2026 football World Cup, forcing the DGOJ to decide whether these products are unlicensed gambling, a form of financial derivative, or something its existing betting rules can already accommodate.

Has Spain banned prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi?

Yes, in their current unlicensed form. The DGOJ opened disciplinary proceedings against both platforms in May 2026 and instructed Spanish internet service providers to block access, treating their offering to Spanish consumers as gambling activity carried out without the required national license. That enforcement action targets the operators, not the underlying concept of prediction betting itself.

Could prediction betting already be legal under Spain's existing rules?

Potentially, for a narrower product than what Polymarket and Kalshi currently offer. Spain's Remote Gambling Act already permits betting structures where players bet against each other and the operator merely intermediates the wager, rather than acting as the counterparty. According to Camille Gonzalvez, TMT and igaming lawyer at ECIJA, speaking at a Gaming in Spain industry webinar, that framework could in theory extend to prediction markets limited to sports or horse racing outcomes without requiring entirely new legislation.

"Current rules allow betting on sporting events where players bet against other players with the operator only acting as an intermediary," said Camille Gonzalvez, TMT and igaming lawyer at ECIJA.

What is the DGOJ and what power does it have here?

The DGOJ is Spain's national gambling regulator, responsible for licensing operators, enforcing the Remote Gambling Act (Law 13 of 2011), and blocking unlicensed platforms. It has the authority both to pursue enforcement against operators like Polymarket and Kalshi and, separately, to interpret or amend the licensing framework in a way that could open the door to a licensed, sports linked prediction product from an authorised Spanish operator.

Why is Spain blocking Polymarket and Kalshi specifically?

Both platforms let users take positions on real world outcomes, including sports results, without holding a Spanish gambling license, which the DGOJ treats as equivalent to unlicensed betting regardless of how the product is marketed. Xavi Munoz Bellvehi, managing partner at ECIJA Barcelona, has noted that Spanish regulators are wary of prediction markets being used to sidestep licensing and consumer protection requirements that apply to conventional sportsbooks.

How does Spain's approach compare with France's?

Spain's stance mirrors action already taken elsewhere in Europe. France has also blocked Polymarket over illegal gambling concerns, treating unlicensed prediction markets as a threat to its regulated betting channel. Where Spain differs is in actively exploring a legal pathway for a licensed version of the product, rather than simply treating prediction betting as incompatible with existing law.

Path	What it means	Current status in Spain
Continue as unlicensed and blocked	Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi treated as illegal gambling operators	Enforcement underway since May 2026
License under existing betting rules	Peer to peer sports or horse racing prediction markets operate as intermediated betting	Being studied; discussed at the October 15, 2026 Gaming in Spain conference
New bespoke legislation	Dedicated prediction market rules added to the Remote Gambling Act	Not yet drafted; separate Act amendments closed for comment June 22, 2026

What other gambling reforms is Spain working on in 2026?

Alongside the prediction betting question, the DGOJ has consulted on amendments to the Remote Gambling Act covering stricter player identification to curb income tax evasion, a registry of approved B2B software suppliers, and tighter advertising restrictions. That public comment period closed June 22, 2026, with formal legislation expected to move to the Spanish Congress and Senate afterward.

How will new deposit limits affect Spain's regulated gambling market?

The Council of Ministers approved a cross operator deposit limit framework by royal decree on June 23, 2026, entering a six month testing phase from September 25, 2026 before full rollout on March 25, 2027. H2 Gambling Capital estimates the limits could cut annual onshore player spending by around EUR 300 million and reduce channelization, the share of betting handled by licensed operators, from 76 percent to 74 percent in 2027, stabilising near 71 percent from 2028 onward.

What happens at the October 2026 Gaming in Spain conference?

The Gaming in Spain conference in Madrid on October 15, 2026 is set to examine, among other regulatory developments, whether products like prediction betting fit Spain's current gambling framework, alongside World Cup betting trends and the incoming deposit limit rules. Speakers at an earlier related webinar cautioned against overstating prediction markets' competitive threat, noting that raw transaction volume on these platforms does not translate directly into comparable betting turnover.

What does this mean for operators and suppliers eyeing the Spanish market?

Licensed Spanish operators watching the prediction betting question face two live variables at once: whether the DGOJ formally sanctions a sports linked prediction product under existing rules, and how much the new deposit limits shrink the addressable regulated market in the meantime. A cautious operator would treat prediction betting as a longer term product opportunity rather than an imminent launch, given no formal licensing pathway has been confirmed.

What happens next for prediction betting regulation in Spain?

No formal legislative timeline has been set for prediction betting specifically. The clearest near term marker is the October 15, 2026 Gaming in Spain conference, where regulators, lawyers and operators are expected to give a clearer public read on whether the DGOJ will formalise a licensing route, while enforcement against unlicensed platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi continues in parallel.

Frequently asked questions

Is prediction betting legal in Spain?

Not in a dedicated sense as of July 2026. Spain has not passed specific legislation licensing prediction markets, though existing sports betting rules could already cover a narrower, sports linked version.

What is the DGOJ?

The DGOJ, or Direccion General de Ordenacion del Juego, is Spain's national gambling regulator, responsible for licensing operators and enforcing the Remote Gambling Act.

Why did Spain block Polymarket and Kalshi?

The DGOJ opened disciplinary proceedings against both platforms in May 2026 and ordered Spanish internet providers to block them for offering gambling style products without a Spanish license.

What are Spain's new cross operator deposit limits?

Approved June 23, 2026, they cap how much a player can deposit across all licensed operators combined, testing from September 25, 2026 and rolling out fully on March 25, 2027.

When will Spain decide on prediction betting rules?

No formal timeline exists yet. The question is expected to be discussed further at the October 15, 2026 Gaming in Spain conference in Madrid.

Updated July 2026.