Netherlands Gambling Tax 2026: Revenue Falls 74% Short of Government Forecasts

Updated July 2026

The Netherlands raised its gambling tax rate twice in quick succession, from 30.5% in late 2024 to 37.8% by January 2026, projecting hundreds of millions in additional government revenue. The outcome has been a textbook lesson in unintended consequences: the Dutch government collected only an estimated €57 million in extra gambling tax revenue in 2026, against a forecast of €216 million, a 74% shortfall. In 2025 the miss was even more stark, with just €2 million of the expected €108 million materializing. The cause is a sharply shrunken tax base, driven by the same regulatory measures that accompanied the tax increases.

• Dutch gambling tax rose from 30.5% to 34.2% (January 2025) and then to 37.8% (January 2026).
• The government expected €108 million in additional revenue in 2025. It collected approximately €2 million, a 98% shortfall.
• In 2026, projected additional revenue was €216 million. Estimated actual is €57 million, a 74% miss.
• Monthly deposit limits of €300 to €700 (introduced October 2024) and advertising bans directly reduced the taxable gambling volume.
• Holland Casino reported profit reductions of approximately €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026.
• Nederlandse Loterij experienced reductions of roughly €16 million (2025) and €34 million (2026).
• Land-based casino and gaming hall visits fell approximately 11% year-on-year between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026.

What Was the Dutch Gambling Tax Increase?

The Netherlands introduced its regulated online gambling market in 2021 under the Remote Gambling Act (KOA). Within four years, the government moved to increase the gambling tax rate in two successive steps. From January 1, 2025, the rate rose from 30.5% to 34.2%. A second increase took it to 37.8% from January 1, 2026. These increases applied across both online and land-based gambling operations licensed under the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the Dutch gambling regulator.

At 37.8%, the Netherlands now sits among the higher-taxing regulated gambling markets in Europe, comparable to France and above the 25% rate applied in markets like Sweden and the 5.3% turnover-based model used in Germany's online segment. The gambling industry had publicly warned before both increases that the combined effect of deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and higher taxation would shrink the regulated market rather than grow tax revenue.

How Far Short Did Revenue Fall?

A monitoring report prepared by the Ministry of Finance in conjunction with the KSA laid out the scale of the underperformance. iGaming Business reported the findings in detail, with the 2025 shortfall almost entirely attributable to a smaller-than-expected taxable market rather than any collection failure.

Year	Tax Rate	Projected Extra Revenue	Actual Extra Revenue	Shortfall
2025	34.2%	€108 million	€2 million	98%
2026	37.8%	€216 million	~€57 million	74%

The 2026 situation improved in absolute terms but remained far below forecast. The shortfall was not a modeling error in how the rate was applied. It was a structural miscalculation of how much gambling volume would remain in the licensed market once multiple restrictive measures were layered together.

Why Did the Dutch Gambling Tax Hike Underperform?

The Ministry of Finance and KSA monitoring report identified four primary causes, each of which compressed the volume of gambling revenue on which the higher rate was applied.

First, player protection rules took effect in October 2024, introducing monthly deposit limits of €300 for players aged 18 to 23 and €700 for those aged 24 and older. These limits directly reduced the volume of money flowing through licensed operators, compressing gross gaming revenue and with it the tax base.

Second, advertising restrictions tightened in stages. A ban on TV sponsorship deals came into force in July 2024, followed by a prohibition on sports team and kit sponsorship in July 2025. Both measures constrained licensed operators' ability to grow customer bases, limiting volume growth at precisely the moment the tax rate was rising. The Premier League gambling shirt sponsor ban in England, which took effect in the same period, illustrates how widespread this advertising pullback became across European markets.

Third, the natural post-tournament decline following UEFA Euro 2024 hit operator revenues, removing a short-term uplift that would otherwise have partially supported the projected tax yield.

Fourth, cumulative margin pressure from regulatory costs led a number of land-based venues to close or restructure, further shrinking the taxable footprint of the Dutch market.

How Were Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij Affected?

The financial impact on the two largest state-linked operators has been material and directly attributable to the tax increases, according to the monitoring report. Holland Casino, the state-owned land-based operator, reported a reduction in profit before corporate tax of approximately €27 million in 2025 and an estimated €54 million in 2026.

Nederlandse Loterij, the national lottery operator, recorded expected profit reductions of roughly €16 million and €34 million in the same years respectively. Together, the two operators absorbed well over €130 million in cumulative profit reduction across the two-year period, a figure that substantially offset any incremental tax revenue the government collected.

Did Higher Taxes Drive Players to the Illegal Market?

The monitoring report does not explicitly quantify how much player spend migrated to unlicensed operators, but it flags a decline in licensed operator market share as a contributing factor to the smaller-than-expected tax base. This is a well-documented dynamic in regulated gambling markets. Brazil betting tax revenue up 90% while illegal operators still control roughly half the market illustrates the same tension on a larger scale: high-rate regulated markets do not automatically capture the full universe of gambling spend when unlicensed alternatives remain accessible.

The Dutch experience also echoes findings from Germany, where the 5.3% turnover-based tax on online slots drove significant player migration to offshore sites after its 2021 introduction. In Sweden, operator channelization rates dipped in the years following the country's re-regulation in 2019, before recovering as enforcement against unlicensed sites intensified.

Land-Based Casino and Gaming Hall Visits Fell 11%

The physical gambling sector was not insulated from the pressures affecting the online market. Land-based casino and gaming hall visits declined approximately 11% year-on-year between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. The monitoring report attributed this to a combination of deposit limits applying across channels, reduced gambling advertising, and margin pressure from the tax increases leading some venues to reduce operating hours or close. Gaming hall numbers, which had already been contracting since the 2021 online market launch, continued their decline into 2026.

What Happens Next for Dutch Gambling Policy?

The KSA and Ministry of Finance monitoring report represents an official acknowledgment that the tax increases did not perform as forecast. The Dutch government has not yet signaled whether it intends to revise the rate downward or whether further consumer protection measures are planned. The industry had warned before both increases that simultaneous deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and higher taxation would shrink the regulated market, and the monitoring data broadly validates that argument.

For policymakers in other jurisdictions considering gambling tax increases, the Netherlands provides a cautionary data set: the taxable market is not static, and consumer protection measures that compress volume can more than offset the revenue gain from a higher rate. AI in iGaming player protection is one avenue regulators are exploring to reduce harm without the volumetric bluntness of blanket deposit limits, though its effectiveness at scale across European markets is still being assessed.

Yogonet's full reporting on the Dutch tax shortfall provides additional primary-source detail on the monitoring report's methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current Dutch gambling tax rate?

As of January 2026, the Netherlands applies a 37.8% gambling tax rate to both online and land-based gambling operators licensed by the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).

Why did the Netherlands miss its gambling tax revenue target?

The government's revenue model assumed a relatively static market size. In practice, deposit limits, advertising bans, post-tournament revenue declines, and some operator closures all reduced the taxable gambling volume, producing far less revenue than the higher rate alone implied.

How much did Holland Casino lose due to the Dutch tax increases?

Holland Casino reported profit reductions of approximately €27 million in 2025 and an estimated €54 million in 2026 as a direct consequence of the higher gambling tax rate.

Did the Dutch tax hike push players to illegal gambling sites?

The KSA monitoring report flagged a decline in licensed operator market share during the period, consistent with player migration to unlicensed alternatives. The exact volume of that migration was not quantified in the report.

Which year saw the bigger Dutch gambling tax shortfall proportionally?

The 2025 shortfall was proportionally larger: just €2 million of the expected €108 million materialized, a 98% miss. In 2026, estimated revenue of €57 million was 74% below the €216 million forecast.