NFL Tells CFTC Sports Prediction Market Rules Fall Short

The National Football League sent a formal letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on July 27, 2026, declaring the agency's proposed prediction market rules "fall significantly short of protecting the integrity of sporting events and the fans who participate in these markets." The NFL's intervention comes as lawyers warn operators they must engage with regulators or face escalating legal exposure, and as new entrant 365Prediction prepares to join a market forecast by Macquarie Equity Research to reach $1.5 trillion in volume by 2030.

• $1.5 trillion in market volume forecast by 2030, per Macquarie Equity Research
• 87% surge in Kalshi's June 2026 volume compared to May, driven by World Cup contracts (CFTC filings)
• $30 billion in wagers attracted by NFL content last season, up to 60% of annual US sports betting volume during the September to February season
• ~85% of leading prediction market platform volume is tied to sports contracts, per Macquarie Equity Research

What Did the NFL Tell the CFTC About Prediction Market Rules?

The NFL's letter, addressed to CFTC Chair Michael Selig and first reported by gambling journalist Dustin Gouker, called the commission's June 2026 draft rulemaking proposal inadequate on multiple fronts. The league stated it does not consider the rules sufficient to protect game integrity or consumers who participate in sports event contract markets.

Unlike MLB and the NHL, the NFL has not entered into commercial partnerships with prediction market platforms such as Kalshi or Polymarket, and its position reflects that independence. The league's challenge also targets the CFTC's current 10-day pre-approval window for event contracts, arguing the window is too short and could inadvertently grandfather contracts listed before enhanced rules take effect.

Which Sports Contracts Does the NFL Want Banned?

The NFL's most detailed demands concern the types of contracts platforms should be prohibited from offering. The league specifically wants restrictions on contracts decided by a single individual, including referee calls and first-play outcomes. It also objects to contracts tied to player injuries, contracts "known or knowable in advance of settlement," and markets based on discretionary officiating choices.

The NFL also called out prediction markets tied to outcomes determined by voting panels, including "Offensive Player of the Year" awards, arguing these markets carry obvious manipulation risk. The CFTC's June 2026 proposal had already signalled restrictions on officiating-related contracts, but the league says those proposals do not go far enough.

What Consumer Protections Is the NFL Demanding?

Beyond contract restrictions, the NFL wants consumer protections that mirror the standards applied to licensed sportsbooks. Specific demands include centralised self-exclusion lists, deposit and loss limit controls, trade risk controls, time and contract notifications, activity summaries, cooldown periods, and periodic activity notifications.

The league also wants the minimum age for sports event contracts raised from 18 to 21, advertising limitations, and a ban on margin trading in sports markets. On insider trading, the NFL rejected relying solely on operator self-regulation. It is pushing for mandatory league-specific prohibited bettor lists and explicit rules against using material non-public information when trading sports event contracts.

Why Are Lawyers Warning Prediction Markets to Engage Regulators?

Legal experts warn that prediction market operators face compounding risks if they continue to rely on preemption arguments rather than proactive regulatory engagement. Braden Perry of Kennyhertz Perry LLC, a former CFTC senior trial attorney, has been among the most direct.

"Insider trading rules for event contracts are unsettled. One match-fixing scandal could drastically shift industry politics. Platforms operating billions in monthly volume lack securities-equivalent surveillance infrastructure. Operators need to engage rulemaking rather than fight it."

Braden Perry, Kennyhertz Perry LLC, former CFTC senior trial attorney

Linda Goldstein of CM Law echoes the concern from a different angle: "Even if prediction markets prevail against states, battles will not end. They simply shift." Goldstein expects regulators to intensify scrutiny on market manipulation as the industry grows, and warns of potential FTC action regarding undisclosed influencer payments. In March 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that Kalshi had paid university influencers without required FTC disclosure, a lapse the Better Business Bureau subsequently acted on.

What Is the Current Legal Landscape for US Prediction Markets?

The regulatory picture across US states remains fragmented and actively contested. Nevada, Michigan, Washington, and potentially New York have restricted or are seeking to restrict Kalshi's sports contract operations, arguing those products constitute sports betting under state law rather than federally regulated derivatives.

State or Court	Action	Current Status
New Jersey (Third Circuit)	KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty: state sought to ban sports event contracts	Kalshi allowed to operate pending appeal; court seen as signal of federal jurisdiction
Massachusetts	State court ruled Kalshi cannot offer sports contracts without state gaming compliance	Operator restricted; demonstrates vulnerability to inconsistent state-level enforcement
Arizona	Criminal charges filed against Kalshi	Most aggressive state action; signals some regulators treat platforms as illegal gambling operators
Ohio	State seeking $5 million fine against Kalshi	Civil enforcement pending; financial penalties add to operational risk
CFTC (Federal)	Commission sued multiple states; argues states lack authority over federally regulated event contracts	Active litigation; Supreme Court involvement widely anticipated

How Does the CFTC-States Jurisdictional Battle Affect Operators?

The central legal question is whether prediction market sports contracts are commodity derivatives falling under federal CFTC jurisdiction, or sports wagering products regulated under state gaming law. A federal appeals court ruling in April 2026 suggested the CFTC likely holds exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, a decision analysts described as a "strong signal" in favour of platforms. However, Massachusetts and Arizona's actions show that state-level courts and prosecutors are not uniformly deferring to that federal framing.

Perry's warning about business model exposure carries particular force: "A platform that is 80% sports volume is not a prediction market. It is a sportsbook with a preemption argument." A Bloomberg analysis flagged tens of thousands of transactions on major platforms as potential insider trading instances, a data point the NFL cited directly in arguing that operator self-regulation is insufficient.

What Is the Insider Trading Risk in Prediction Markets?

Unlike securities markets, where the SEC has decades of established insider trading case law, prediction markets operate in a space where rules governing material non-public information remain largely unsettled. Perry describes this as a systemic vulnerability: a single credible match-fixing or information-leakage scandal could trigger rapid political response regardless of which party controls the White House.

The NFL's demand for league-specific prohibited bettor lists reflects a standard already common in licensed sportsbook regulation, where leagues maintain lists of players, coaches, team staff, and their associates who are barred from wagering on league events. Leading prediction market platforms have not historically implemented equivalent controls.

How Is 365Prediction Approaching the Regulatory Challenge?

While established platforms navigate state enforcement actions, 365Prediction is entering the market with a structure designed to reduce regulatory friction. Founded by Dr. Laila Mintas, a former iGaming lobbyist and sports business executive who previously served as PlayUp CEO, the company has filed dual applications with the CFTC as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Designated Clearing Organization (DCO).

That vertical integration means 365Prediction would control both market offerings and contract settlement without requiring third-party clearinghouses. Mintas argues the distinction matters for trust and risk management: "That vertical structure is very important. We will control not only the markets, but we will also be able to settle the markets," she told CasinoBeats.

On market size, Mintas is direct: "The market is big enough for everybody to get their decent piece of the action." The company expects CFTC approval by the end of 2026 and is targeting a commercial launch in early 2027. Its primary focus is sports contracts, with political markets offered through a partnership with data firm FiscalNote.

What Does the Political Landscape Mean for Prediction Market Regulation?

The current Trump administration has been openly supportive of prediction markets, and the CFTC under Chair Selig has taken a pro-innovation stance. However, regulatory durability is not guaranteed. Perry warns: "Whatever this commission finalizes, the next administration can reverse." Bipartisan congressional legislation has been introduced to increase prediction market regulation, and Democratic lawmakers formally urged the CFTC in April 2026 to take a harder line on sports betting and insider trading risks, according to CNBC.

Turkey's decision in July 2026 to block Polymarket under "illegal betting" regulations is a reminder that international regulatory divergence adds a further layer of complexity for platforms with global ambitions.

What Happens Next for US Prediction Market Regulation?

The CFTC is expected to finalize its prediction market rulemaking by late 2026. The final rule will likely define which categories of sports contracts are permissible and set baseline consumer protection standards. Industry analysts widely anticipate that the Supreme Court may need to resolve the jurisdictional conflict between federal and state regulators if circuit courts reach inconsistent conclusions across the multiple active cases.

For operators, the near-term operational reality is state-by-state legal uncertainty, growing political pressure from sports leagues, and investor expectations of continued rapid growth. Macquarie Equity Research's $1.5 trillion volume forecast by 2030 reflects that growth thesis, but the legal framework that would underpin it remains unresolved as of July 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets legal in the United States?

Prediction markets operating as CFTC-regulated exchanges are legal under federal law, but several US states including Massachusetts, Nevada, and Arizona have taken enforcement action against sports event contracts, arguing they constitute sports betting under state gaming law. The question of federal versus state jurisdiction is actively being litigated in multiple courts.

What is the CFTC and why does it regulate prediction markets?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the US federal agency that oversees derivatives markets. It regulates prediction markets because event contracts are classified as commodity derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act. Platforms such as Kalshi are licensed as Designated Contract Markets by the CFTC.

Why is the NFL opposed to the current CFTC prediction market rules?

The NFL argues the CFTC's June 2026 draft rules do not adequately protect game integrity or consumers. Specific concerns include contracts tied to referee decisions and player injuries, insufficient insider trading controls, no mandatory self-exclusion framework, and an age minimum below 21 for sports event contract markets.

How does a prediction market differ from a sportsbook?

In a traditional sportsbook, the operator sets the odds and takes the opposite side of the bet, profiting when the customer loses. In a prediction market, participants trade contracts with each other on an exchange. The platform earns fees rather than taking position risk, and does not have a financial interest in any particular outcome.

What is 365Prediction and when will it launch?

365Prediction is a US prediction market platform founded by Dr. Laila Mintas. It has filed applications with the CFTC as both a Designated Contract Market and a Designated Clearing Organization. A commercial launch is targeted for early 2027, pending CFTC approval expected by end of 2026.

Updated July 2026.