Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act Introduced in US House

A bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act in the House of Representatives on July 24, 2026, seeking to prohibit federally regulated trading exchanges from listing sports betting and casino-style event contracts. The bill, sponsored by Nevada Republicans and Democrats in both chambers, has the backing of the American Gaming Association (AGA), UNITE HERE, and the Culinary Union, which together represent more than 160,000 casino workers whose jobs are at stake.

• Over $1 billion: estimated gaming tax revenue lost by US states to CFTC-regulated prediction markets (Horsford press release, July 2026)
• 27%: share of US sports betting volume captured by prediction markets during the 2026 FIFA World Cup (bill sponsor data, July 2026)
• Up to 90%: share of total prediction market trading volume made up by sports event contracts (CFTC filings and market data, 2026)
• 160,000+: casino and gaming workers represented by supporting unions, including 60,000 Culinary Union members in Nevada alone (UNITE HERE, July 2026)

What does the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act do?

The legislation would prevent federally registered trading platforms, operating under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, from listing event contracts tied to sports outcomes or casino-style games. It draws a legal distinction between legitimate financial hedging instruments, such as weather derivatives and economic contracts, which the bill preserves, and what it characterizes as sports bets and casino wagers operating under a different regulatory label.

The bill also includes language explicitly affirming state and tribal authority over gaming regulation, an important provision for Nevada, whose lawmakers are prominent among the bill's sponsors and whose tribal gaming operators have faced direct revenue competition from prediction markets. It would eliminate the need for lengthy CFTC rulemaking processes by acting through direct legislation.

Who sponsored the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act?

In the House, the bill was introduced on July 24, 2026 by Representatives Steven Horsford (D-NV-04) and Mark Amodei (R-NV-02), both of whom represent Nevada districts with significant casino industry employment. The bipartisan pairing signals that the issue cuts across party lines, united by concerns over jobs and state revenue rather than partisan ideology.

A companion bill in the Senate was introduced in March 2026 by Senators John Curtis (R-UT) and Adam Schiff (D-CA), with Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) as a co-sponsor. The Senate bill has been in committee since March, and the House introduction in July is intended to build legislative momentum in both chambers simultaneously.

Why are Nevada lawmakers driving this legislation?

Nevada is the epicenter of US commercial gaming and has some of the most direct exposure to prediction market competition. Nevada sportsbooks reported their lowest Super Bowl wagering figures in a decade during the 2026 Super Bowl cycle, a period when prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket reported record volumes. The state's licensed operators pay gaming taxes, comply with responsible gambling regulations, and operate within a framework overseen by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Prediction market operators do none of the above.

"When it looks like sports betting, it acts like sports betting, and profits from sports betting, then it should follow the same rules." - Representative Steven Horsford (D-NV-04), July 2026

Representative Amodei added that "gaming policy has long been the responsibility of states and tribes, not unelected federal regulators," framing the issue as a question of jurisdictional principle as well as economics.

What are prediction markets and why do they matter for iGaming?

Prediction markets are platforms where users buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of events, including sporting contests and political races. Operators like Kalshi and Polymarket register with the CFTC as designated contract markets, classifying their products as financial instruments rather than gambling. This classification exempts them from state gaming licensing requirements, from consumer protection rules applied to sportsbooks, and from the tax obligations that licensed operators pay to state governments.

Critics, including the AGA and state regulators, argue that a product where users put money on a sports outcome is functionally identical to a sports bet, regardless of the regulatory wrapper around it. During the 2026 FIFA World Cup, prediction markets captured an estimated 27% of US sports betting volume, a market share that would have been negligible just two years earlier.

How much has the prediction market boom cost the licensed gambling industry?

Impact Area	Estimated Effect	Source
State gaming tax revenue lost	Over $1 billion	Bill sponsors, July 2026
World Cup US market share (prediction markets)	27% of sports betting volume	Bill sponsor data, 2026
Nevada sportsbook Super Bowl handle	Lowest in a decade	Nevada Gaming Control Board data, 2026
Prediction market sports contract share	Up to 90% of total volume	CFTC filings, 2026

What does the AGA say about prediction markets?

The American Gaming Association endorsed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, describing prediction markets as entities that "compete directly with licensed sportsbooks while avoiding the licensing, consumer protections, tax obligations, and regulatory oversight that the legal sports betting industry maintains." The AGA has been lobbying against the CFTC's permissive approach to sports event contracts for more than a year, and its formal endorsement of the bill marks an escalation in the industry's political strategy.

The AGA's position is that the question of who can offer sports betting products should be decided by Congress and state legislatures, not by CFTC rulemaking or court rulings in favour of platform operators.

What do casino worker unions say about prediction markets?

UNITE HERE, which represents more than 100,000 casino and hotel workers across North America, and the Culinary Union, which covers 60,000 workers at Nevada casino resorts, have both formally endorsed the legislation. Their argument centers on job security: if licensed casino revenues fall because prediction markets capture an ever-larger share of sports wagering, operators have less revenue to sustain staffing levels, wages, and benefits.

Senator Curtis, the Republican co-sponsor of the Senate companion bill, also highlighted a consumer protection concern specific to his state: "Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting" through prediction market platforms that face fewer safeguards than regulated sportsbooks.

What happens to CFTC jurisdiction under this bill?

The bill does not seek to eliminate the CFTC's authority over legitimate financial derivatives. Weather contracts, commodity hedges, economic indicator contracts, and similar instruments would remain under CFTC oversight and would not be affected by the legislation. The bill specifically targets only sports event contracts and casino-style event contracts, narrowly defined to exclude bona fide hedging instruments.

Prediction market operators have argued that their products serve legitimate price discovery functions and that their revenue comes from transaction fees rather than from taking the opposite side of user bets. The bill's sponsors dispute this characterization, noting that sports contracts account for the vast majority of trading volume on these platforms and that users experience them as sports bets regardless of the legal structure.

What is the bill's likelihood of passing?

The bipartisan sponsorship in both chambers improves the bill's chances compared to a single-chamber or single-party effort, but prediction market legislation faces several headwinds. Kalshi and Polymarket have mounted aggressive legal and lobbying campaigns to defend their CFTC-regulated status. Courts have so far sided with the platforms in state-level legal battles. And the broader political environment around deregulation in financial markets may make some lawmakers reluctant to restrict a class of financial product that has grown rapidly.

However, the scale of the supporting coalition, spanning the AGA, major unions, and lawmakers from both parties across multiple states, represents the most organized political opposition prediction markets have faced. The World Cup data showing 27% market capture may prove persuasive to legislators focused on state budget impacts.

For context on the legal battles already underway, see our earlier coverage of Kalshi vs the States and Kalshi's $2 billion daily volume milestone. Full text of the House bill is available through the office of Representative Steven Horsford.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act?

It is a bipartisan US federal bill introduced in the House on July 24, 2026 that would prohibit CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms from listing sports betting and casino-style event contracts, closing a regulatory loophole that lets them operate outside state gaming laws.

Who introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act?

In the House, Reps. Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Mark Amodei (R-NV) introduced the bill on July 24, 2026. A Senate companion was introduced in March 2026 by Senators John Curtis (R-UT), Adam Schiff (D-CA), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).

Why do prediction markets not need a gambling licence?

Prediction market operators register with the CFTC as designated contract markets, classifying their sports outcome contracts as financial instruments rather than gambling. This exempts them from state gaming licensing, consumer protections, and the tax obligations that licensed sportsbooks must meet.

How much revenue have prediction markets taken from licensed sportsbooks?

States have lost an estimated $1 billion or more in gaming tax revenue to CFTC-regulated prediction markets. During the 2026 FIFA World Cup, prediction markets captured approximately 27% of US sports betting volume, compared to negligible share just two years earlier.

Does the bill affect legitimate financial derivatives?

No. The legislation explicitly preserves CFTC oversight of bona fide hedging instruments such as weather, commodity, and economic contracts. It targets only sports event contracts and casino-style event contracts.

Updated July 2026