Polymarket Fights France ISP Block as European Prediction Market Crackdown Widens

France ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket on July 16, 2026, after its gambling regulator, the Autorite Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), declared prediction markets a form of illegal gambling. Polymarket has announced it will legally challenge the ban, calling France "committed to financial and technological innovation." The move puts Paris in a group of more than 30 countries that restrict the platform, while the two largest prediction market operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, together carry a combined market valuation exceeding $37 billion.

Updated July 2026

• July 16, 2026: ANJ instructed French ISPs to block all access to Polymarket
• February 2026: ANJ formally reclassified prediction markets as illegal gambling under French law
• November 2024: ANJ first froze Polymarket financial transactions, blocking deposits and withdrawals
• 578,751 French user visits and 205,057 unique visitors were recorded in June 2026 despite the transaction freeze
• Polymarket has pledged a legal challenge and says it will engage constructively with French authorities
• British financier George Cottrell, nicknamed "Posh George," deposited over $8 million on Polymarket for the 2024 US election and later lost $655,000 betting on an Iran invasion, drawing UK media attention to the platform
• More than 30 countries restrict Polymarket, including Portugal, Romania, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Ukraine
• Gibraltar became the first jurisdiction globally to establish a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets
• Kalshi is valued at $22 billion and reportedly seeking a $40 billion valuation ahead of a potential IPO; Polymarket carries a $15 billion valuation

Why Did France Order ISPs to Block Polymarket?

The ANJ's July 16 blocking order followed a pattern of escalating enforcement. In November 2024, the regulator froze Polymarket's ability to process financial transactions in France. That measure failed. Despite being unable to deposit or withdraw funds through normal channels, French users continued accessing the platform in significant numbers: 578,751 visits from 205,057 unique visitors in June 2026 alone.

The ANJ cited several specific concerns in its blocking rationale. First, the platform's homepage displays live, real-time odds on ongoing events, which the regulator characterized as a promotional channel for illegal gambling services. Second, the platform lacks stake limits and self-exclusion tools mandatory for licensed gambling operators in France. Third, users had been circumventing the transaction ban through VPNs and alternative payment methods. The regulator also referenced specific incidents, including complaints from weather services about tampered temperature sensors affecting climate-related prediction markets and concerns about the influence of large individual French traders on specific market outcomes.

The underlying legal basis for enforcement crystallised in February 2026, when the ANJ formally ruled that prediction markets constitute gambling rather than financial instruments. That reclassification removed any ambiguity about the regulator's jurisdiction and gave it clear authority to pursue ISP-level blocking.

What Did France's Earlier Enforcement Measures Achieve?

Very little. The November 2024 transaction freeze demonstrated the limits of financial-level enforcement against a crypto-native platform. Users who could not move fiat currency simply accessed Polymarket through cryptocurrency wallets or used VPNs to mask their location. The ANJ acknowledged this directly in its July 2026 ruling, noting that the earlier restriction had proven "ineffective" at reducing French user activity on the site.

France's experience reflects a broader challenge for gambling regulators confronting globally accessible crypto platforms. Unlike traditional online casinos that operate through payment processors susceptible to banking blocks, Polymarket primarily settles positions in USDC stablecoins on the Polygon blockchain. That architecture makes financial intervention significantly harder than a standard payment-processor ban.

How Is Polymarket Responding to the French Block?

Polymarket has publicly committed to a legal challenge. In a statement issued after the ANJ decision, the company expressed disappointment but signalled a preference for dialogue, noting that "France has demonstrated a strong commitment to financial and technological innovation." The platform argues that its core function is informational rather than recreational: "Most people come to Polymarket solely to learn the probability of future events relevant to their everyday life with no intention to trade."

The legal fight faces long odds in the short term. France's ANJ has broad enforcement powers within its domestic jurisdiction, and French courts have shown limited appetite for reversing gambling regulator decisions on procedural grounds. The more likely avenue is a sustained lobbying effort, potentially alongside other prediction market operators, to push for a dedicated European regulatory framework that distinguishes probability-information markets from traditional gambling products.

Who Is "Posh George" and Why Does He Feature in This Story?

George Cottrell, a British financier and political activist with a conviction for wire fraud in the United States, has drawn sustained UK media attention to Polymarket through two high-profile trades. In October 2024, an account registered as "GCottrell93" deposited more than $8 million onto Polymarket and placed large positions predicting a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election. The bet proved correct.

Cottrell subsequently bet $655,000 on a prediction that Iran would launch a military strike, a position that expired worthless. Given Cottrell's public ties to Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and his background in cryptocurrency, UK press coverage of his Polymarket activity generated questions about the provenance of the funds involved. Polymarket itself faces no allegations of wrongdoing in relation to Cottrell's trades. However, the coverage placed the platform's UK regulatory status under informal scrutiny at precisely the moment France was escalating its enforcement action, providing political backdrop to the wider European discussion.

Which European Countries Have Restricted Polymarket?

France joins a lengthy list. The platform is currently blocked or restricted in Portugal, Romania, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ukraine, Switzerland, Poland, Spain, and more than 20 additional jurisdictions. The common thread across these bans is a refusal to accept Polymarket's self-classification as a financial or information product rather than a gambling service.

Jurisdiction	Status	Regulatory Basis
France	ISP block (July 2026)	ANJ: classified as illegal gambling
Italy	Blocked	ADM gambling prohibition
Belgium	Blocked	Gaming Commission prohibition
Netherlands	Blocked	KSA unlicensed gambling
Portugal	Blocked	SRIJ prohibition
Spain	Blocked	DGOJ prohibition
Gibraltar	Licensed (dedicated framework)	First jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets specifically
United States	Permitted (from 2025)	CFTC position eased under second Trump administration
United Kingdom	Unresolved	Gambling Commission has not formally classified prediction markets

What Is Gibraltar Doing Differently?

Gibraltar has positioned itself as the first jurisdiction in the world to build a regulatory framework specifically designed for prediction markets rather than attempting to fit them into existing gambling or financial services categories. The practical effect is that a Polymarket competitor willing to obtain a Gibraltar licence would have a clear legal operating basis in that territory, along with a potential argument for passporting into other jurisdictions that accept Gibraltar-regulated operators.

The Gibraltar approach has attracted attention from both operators and lobbyists looking for a model that could be replicated at the EU level. Whether Brussels moves in that direction depends heavily on how the European Commission resolves the tension between the EU Digital Services Act's demand for tighter platform controls over illegal gambling promotions and the bloc's stated support for fintech and blockchain innovation.

How Does the European Picture Compare to the US Regulatory Position?

The contrast is stark. The United States blocked Polymarket between 2022 and 2025 following a CFTC enforcement action. The platform paid a $1.4 million settlement and exited the US market. However, the second Trump administration's shift toward a more permissive stance on crypto and prediction markets allowed Polymarket to return in 2025. US-based competitor Kalshi won a court battle against the CFTC that cleared the path for event-outcome contracts to trade on regulated exchanges. The result is that the world's largest gambling market is now comparatively open to prediction market activity, while most of Western Europe remains closed or legally ambiguous.

That divergence matters commercially. The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in the US House attempts to formally bring prediction markets under existing gambling law, which would reassert the more restrictive posture. If that legislation advances, the US and EU could once again align, though from opposite directions: the US moving toward more restriction, Europe potentially moving toward licensed frameworks on the Gibraltar model.

The Pennsylvania prediction market bill offers another data point: even within the US, states are arriving at markedly different conclusions about how to classify and tax these products.

How Large Is the Prediction Market Sector and Why Does It Matter?

Polymarket carries a reported $15 billion valuation. Kalshi, its closest US-based rival, was last valued at $22 billion and is reportedly seeking a $40 billion valuation ahead of a potential IPO. Neither figure includes the dozens of smaller prediction market platforms operating across various jurisdictions. The sector has grown from a niche curiosity in the early 2020s to a significant financial category, in large part because of high-profile real-world events, from the 2024 US election to major sporting tournaments, that generated enormous trading volumes and mainstream media coverage.

The stakes are not purely financial. Prediction markets generate probability signals that are increasingly cited by news organisations, financial analysts, and policy institutions as real-time indicators of expected outcomes. The Netflix documentary "The Prediction Games" released this week reflects that growing cultural profile. Regulators who treat prediction markets purely as gambling products risk suppressing an information function that markets are also performing alongside any recreational component.

What Does ANJ's Classification Mean for Prediction Markets Across Europe?

The ANJ decision has persuasive weight beyond France. When a large, sophisticated gambling regulator like the ANJ issues a formal legal opinion that prediction markets constitute gambling rather than financial instruments, other regulators face pressure to address the classification question in their own jurisdictions. Germany, Sweden, and Denmark, each with relatively robust and rules-based gambling regulatory systems, have not yet issued formal positions on prediction markets. The ANJ ruling gives their legal teams an influential precedent to consider.

The EU Digital Services Act adds another layer. Platforms with over 45 million EU users classified as Very Large Online Platforms are required to prevent illegal gambling promotions from reaching EU users. X (formerly Twitter) is currently disputing a fine exceeding 120 million euros for alleged moderation failures under the DSA. That regulatory climate makes it harder for any EU platform to argue it can host prediction market activity under a financial services rather than gambling framing without attracting supervisory scrutiny.

What Are the Implications for the Prediction Market Sector?

Three dynamics are now in play simultaneously. First, the US market is opening while Europe closes, creating a geography of regulatory arbitrage that operators will exploit until either the US tightens again or Europe constructs an alternative licensed pathway. Second, the Gibraltar model provides a proof of concept for dedicated prediction market licensing, and well-funded operators will lobby for its adoption elsewhere. Third, the sector's scale is now large enough that regulators in jurisdictions like the UK, which have not yet formally classified prediction markets, are under growing pressure to act before the regulatory gap becomes untenable.

Polymarket's legal challenge in France is unlikely to succeed quickly enough to restore access for French users in the near term. The more consequential battle is at the European policy level, where the case for a dedicated regulatory category is gaining ground among operators and some policy analysts even as enforcement-focused regulators push in the opposite direction.

"France has demonstrated a strong commitment to financial and technological innovation." Polymarket, in response to the ANJ block, July 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Polymarket banned in France?

Yes. France's gambling regulator, the ANJ, ordered ISPs to block access to Polymarket on July 16, 2026, following an earlier transaction freeze in November 2024 that failed to reduce French user activity on the platform.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

The UK Gambling Commission has not formally classified prediction markets as gambling. Polymarket currently operates in a legal grey area in the UK, though the "Posh George" controversy has drawn informal regulatory attention to the platform's UK-based activity.

Can French users still access Polymarket?

VPNs can circumvent ISP-level blocks. The ANJ acknowledged in its ruling that French users had already been bypassing the 2024 transaction freeze through such tools. Using a VPN to access a blocked service does not carry criminal penalties for individual users in France but does violate Polymarket's terms of service.

What makes prediction markets different from sports betting?

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts on the outcome of future events, with prices reflecting the collective probability assessment of all participants. Unlike a fixed-odds sports bet placed with a bookmaker, prediction market positions can be traded before the event resolves, and the markets span non-sporting outcomes such as elections, economic indicators, and geopolitical events. Regulators disagree about whether this makes them a financial derivative or a gambling product.

Who regulates Polymarket?

Polymarket operates from the British Virgin Islands and is not licensed as a gambling operator in any major jurisdiction except, from 2025, under a returning US posture that allows it to operate without a formal gambling licence while CFTC jurisdiction is contested. Gibraltar is the first jurisdiction to create a dedicated prediction market licence that an operator like Polymarket could theoretically obtain.