World Cup 2026 Prediction Market Volumes: Kalshi and Polymarket by the Numbers

Kalshi and Polymarket posted record trading volumes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with prediction markets processing tens of billions of dollars in wagers on the 48 team, 39 day tournament that ran from June 11 to July 19, 2026. Kalshi alone recorded roughly 166 million dollars in notional volume on its World Cup winner market between the semifinals and the final, and US prediction markets overall reached 20 billion dollars in notional volume in just 12 days in July, matching the entire month of May in under two weeks.

How much money did Kalshi and Polymarket trade during the 2026 World Cup

Kalshi and Polymarket together processed tens of billions of dollars across World Cup related markets during the tournament, according to data reported by Sportico and CasinoBeats. Kalshi's England versus Mexico match alone generated 223 million dollars in notional volume, described as the highest figure ever recorded on a single sports result in prediction market history, while match by match volume scaled from roughly 80 million dollars in the group stages to 795 million dollars around the final.

How does this compare with the 2022 World Cup

The 2026 tournament outpaced the 2022 Qatar World Cup on the metric that matters most to the wider betting industry, total money wagered, even though the two events used different products. The 2022 World Cup generated an estimated 35 billion dollars in traditional sportsbook wagers worldwide. By contrast, 2026 saw prediction markets, a product that barely existed for sports at scale in 2022, capture a large share of that appetite alongside an estimated 4 billion dollar traditional sportsbook handle in the US, with Kalshi and Polymarket's combined World Cup volume estimated at around 20 billion dollars by CasinoBeats' analysis of trading platform Ticker Tracker.

Key facts

• Kalshi's World Cup winner market processed about 166 million dollars in notional volume from the semifinals through the final, per Sportico.
• US prediction markets hit 20 billion dollars in notional volume in the first 12 days of July 2026 alone, matching all of May's volume, according to Sportico's review of CFTC linked platform data.
• Kalshi controlled roughly 83 percent of CFTC approved prediction market notional volume in July 2026, with Polymarket's US arm at about 10 percent, Robinhood's Rothera at 4.6 percent, and Crypto.com's Nadex at 2.4 percent.

Who won and who lost money trading World Cup prediction markets

Most individual traders lost money on Polymarket's World Cup markets even as the platforms themselves and a small number of large accounts profited heavily. CasinoBeats reported that 66.7 percent of Polymarket traders lost money overall, with 43 accounts losing a combined 15 million dollars while 54 accounts won a combined 22 million dollars, including five accounts that each profited more than 1 million dollars, a pattern typical of markets where a minority of sophisticated or high volume traders capture most of the gains from a much larger pool of casual bettors.

How many new users did Kalshi and Polymarket add during the tournament

Kalshi added roughly 3 million new users during the World Cup, with app downloads peaking at 269,000 in a single day, while Polymarket reported around 193,000 accounts actively trading World Cup markets, according to CasinoBeats' review of the platforms' own disclosures. That scale of user growth in a five week window shows how a single global sporting event can move the needle for a product category that has grown mostly through steady monthly increases rather than sharp spikes tied to a specific event.

Why are prediction markets growing faster than regulated sports betting

Prediction markets are growing faster than regulated sports betting because they operate under federal commodities rules rather than state by state gambling licenses, letting Kalshi and Polymarket's US arm reach customers nationwide without seeking a license in every state. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has argued that these platforms offer financial products rather than gambling, stating that "gambling is done in casinos," a framing that the American Gaming Association directly disputes. The AGA has said prediction markets operate "outside of state regulatory guardrails" and estimated they have diverted more than 500 million dollars in potential sports betting tax revenue, a figure from its 2025 commercial gaming revenue report published by the American Gaming Association.

Is regulated sports betting losing ground to prediction markets

Regulated sports betting is not shrinking nationally, but its growth rate is slowing in specific markets where prediction markets have gained the most traction. AGA data shows commercial sports betting revenue actually rose 22.8 percent across all of 2025 to 16.96 billion dollars, yet state level monthly data tells a more mixed story: Illinois posted its largest yearly handle drop of 2026 in May, down roughly 10 percent, a decline multiple outlets including Covers and Yahoo Sports have tied in part to bettors shifting activity to prediction markets during major sporting events.

How does Kalshi's market share break down among prediction platforms

Kalshi holds a commanding lead among CFTC linked prediction market platforms, controlling about 83 percent of notional trading volume in July 2026. The table below sets out how the main platforms compared on market share during the period, based on Sportico's reporting.

Platform	Approximate July 2026 market share	Notes
Kalshi	83%	Sponsored Argentina's national team during the tournament
Polymarket (US arm)	10%	Separate from its larger international exchange
Robinhood (Rothera)	4.6%	Robinhood's prediction market product
Crypto.com (Nadex)	2.4%	Long running CFTC regulated exchange

What are traditional sportsbook operators saying about prediction markets

Traditional sportsbook operators are treating prediction markets as an emerging competitor rather than a passing trend, while stressing it remains early days for measuring the real impact. A DraftKings spokesperson described the competitive picture as "still very early as we ramp into this," language that suggests operators are watching customer behaviour closely rather than yet overhauling their own product strategy in response.

What do smaller sports betting operators think of prediction markets

Smaller and newer operators have been more openly critical of how prediction markets present themselves to customers. Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said bluntly that "there's a lot of BS, frankly, that goes on in the industry," a comment reported by Sportico that reflects a wider frustration among licensed sportsbook operators who argue prediction markets offer functionally identical wagers on sports outcomes while avoiding the licensing costs and consumer protection rules those operators must follow.

What happens next for prediction markets after the World Cup

Prediction markets are unlikely to slow down after the World Cup given the pending state court rulings against Kalshi in Washington, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Michigan, each testing whether state gambling law can reach a product regulated federally as a commodity. Our earlier coverage of the Washington Kalshi injunction and Ireland's threatened court action against Polymarket and Kalshi shows regulators on both sides of the Atlantic moving to test the same legal question the CFTC and state gambling regulators disagree on: whether these products are gambling at all.

FAQ

How much did Kalshi and Polymarket trade during the 2026 World Cup?

Tens of billions of dollars combined, with US prediction markets overall reaching 20 billion dollars in notional volume in the first 12 days of July 2026 alone, according to Sportico's reporting on CFTC linked platform data.

Did prediction markets outpace traditional sportsbooks during the World Cup?

US traditional sportsbook handle for the tournament was estimated at around 4 billion dollars, well below the combined prediction market volume, based on CasinoBeats' analysis, though the two products are not measured on a like for like basis since notional trading volume differs from sportsbook handle.

Why do regulators disagree on whether Kalshi is gambling?

The CFTC treats Kalshi's contracts as regulated financial products under federal commodities law, while courts in Washington, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Michigan have ruled that the same contracts amount to unlicensed gambling under state law.

How much of the prediction market is Kalshi versus Polymarket?

Kalshi held about 83 percent of CFTC approved prediction market notional volume in July 2026, with Polymarket's US arm at roughly 10 percent, per Sportico.

Did most people make money trading World Cup prediction markets?

No. CasinoBeats reported that 66.7 percent of Polymarket traders lost money on World Cup markets, while a small number of large accounts captured most of the profit.

Updated July 2026.